May’s Flowers

The (Monthly) Geopolitical Wrap

 

April showers brought but a continuing bleak global geopolitical landscape.

Just over two years ago, more than 100 (perhaps up to 300) men, women, children, and elderly were shot and burned in Odessa, Ukraine. It was the casus belli for the war in Donbass, in the eastern and decidedly pro-Russian part of Ukraine (demonstrated in Crimea’s March 2014 referendum secession to the Russian Federation). A conglomerate of right-wing, neo-fascist, and strong men of various guise led the ensuing coup de tat, imposing a decidedly pro-Western leadership in Kiev. By April, an armed resistance against Kiev had already formed in Donetsk. Sevastopol, Crimea, remains a bone of contention for the now divided Ukraine. But, for the time being (rightly or wrongly) it’s warm-water naval base — in the strategic Black Sea locale — is firmly in the hands of Russia.

And before we cross the border to the east, WikiLeaks has (apparently) confirmed of a post-war CIA covert destabilisation Operation AERODYNAMIC in Ukraine. Farther east, meanwhile, Putin’s Sistema seems here to stay — for now. And farther still, Xi is now Mao according to the WSJ. And China is now a bursting bubble, according to the South China Morning Post. And, the Pentagon is wrongly fearful to be looking to burst this neo-Mao bubble over the South China Sea.

And as Middle East oil is slowly but surely heading ever eastward — to China — global weakness still starts in America. And in America, the old Nationalism v Globalism debate has once again surfaced: Should America be inward or outward looking? Should America be sky watching or navel gazing? And is white America racist or greedy? Apparently both, in answer to the last question. And the solution is to print more money.

The headlines do not much abate south of the border — impeachment in Sao Paulo, famine in Caracas, the spectre of inflation just as Argentina shows signs of life.

On the surface of it, the picture looks mixed and the global economy patchwork. But when you scratch the surface things look decidedly grimmer. That may be why we are all doubling down. And that all means less rum for the horse. But not in the Marcos’s stables, where there are billions of dollars floating around — ten (10) of them in fact.

Finally, some good news. Or is it rather another case of “from the sublime to the ridiculous”. And who knows what June will spring: another iteration of the Internal Logic of Eternal NATO Expansion?

MGW

 

 

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